The Orbán government likes to reference what Hungarians want, but the majority of the population isn't talking to them

Viktor Orbán announced a few days ago that he would soon launch a "public opinion poll" on Ukraine's accession to the EU. The Prime Minister said that this was not a matter to be decided without the people, and that the government "must know to what extent people are willing to make sacrifices to support Ukraine".

The government was fast to explain what this vote would be about: it would be "quick and efficient", just like national consultations, but this time, people will only have to answer a single question with a yes or a no. "The Hungarian people will decide whether supporting Ukraine's accession to the EU is a responsible choice in the current situation. We will put the question to the Hungarian people and we will stick to what they answer. This will be the only question asked, so that in all EU forums, the Hungarian government can act according to what the Hungarian people will have decided." – the Government's Information Centre wrote in their statement.

Thus, as the government promises, in the case of the "public opinion poll ", which is not a term that exists in the Hungarian legal order,

• they will ask the Hungarian people a question,
• the Hungarian people will respond,
• and the government will then represent the decision of the Hungarian people in all forums.
• Just like they do after national consultations.

However, there are several problems with the national consultations being used as a reference point. In these, the questions are asked in such a way as to obtain answers that are as close as possible to the government's position. The veracity of the questions has in itself been called into question multiple times and many issues have been oversimplified. And as for the answers, there are usually two possible options: one may either agree with the government or disagree, but in case of the latter, it is suggested that the country will either become a "ghetto of migrants", or the cuts in utility costs will be abolished, (because “Brussels would force it upon us”) or preschool children will want to change their gender because of all the LGBTQ propaganda they would be subjected to. This is why anyone who doesn't support the government's position is unlikely to fill in these ‘surveys’.

The government also likes to claim that in any given consultation, the overwhelming majority of responses are in favour (usually over 90 per cent) of their viewpoint. But if one takes a closer look at these consultations, they will find that only a fraction of the questionnaires sent out by the government are returned fully completed, with – a huge part – 70-90 percent – of the population not giving their opinion at all.

So far, the Hungarian government has held a national consultation fourteen times.

In most cases only 15-20 percent of the Hungarian population eligible to vote has participated in these. The most successful national consultation was clearly the one on "the Soros plan" in 2017, but even on that one, less than 30 percent of the population "consulted" with the government.

Neither before nor since have they managed to produce a better turnout. The subject of protecting families mobilised 17 percent of voters, while the survey on epidemiological measures only moved 21 percent, with the one on life after the epidemic generating even less of a response.

A look at the figures reveals that the number of respondents has increased by a few percent since the 2017 "Stop Brussels" consultation. This is a sign that something must have changed prior to that. While some serious issues had also been raised before – on the Constitution, on social issues, on state assistance being granted to those who took on loans in a foreign currency, or even on what people expect from the government – all of these mobilised fewer people than subsequent consultations. In the ones held since then, the government has been positing strongly directed questions. The turnaround may also be linked to the arrival of Antal Rogán, who has headed the Prime Minister's Cabinet Office since October 2015, which is also in charge of these consultations.

Those who prefer to browse numbers rather than percentages, will see below that, for example, of the eight million questionnaires sent out in 2015 on "immigration and terrorism", only one million were returned to the government's mailbox, whereas in 2017, the questionnaire on "stopping Brussels" – which was accompanied by a propaganda campaign costing billions of forints – was sent back by 1.7 million people. And the latest questionnaire on economic policy was completed by no more than 1.3 million voters.

The 2011 consultation on the "future of the Hungarian internet", which could only be completed online, was the worst performer, with only 31,000 people filling it in. This, however, did not prevent the government from subsequently framing it as "the will of the participants was clear: the internet should be accessible and affordable for all, it should help education and the youth, and it should not threaten the safety of our children". The 2021 consultation on re-launching the economy post-Covid, which was also only conducted online, received very few responses as well, with only 528,000 respondents answering the questions. In 2022, the government also struggled to get as many responses as it would have liked to the consultation on the energy sanctions. They even extended the deadline by an extra week, but even this way, the number of those returning it was just under 1.4 million.

The government, however, is keen on citing 'the convincing results' of the responses it has received as the basis for its policies – it has pointed to them as the reason for not allowing migrants in, as the reason for working to 'stop Brussels and George Soros', and most recently to enter the economic year of 2025 with 'the confirmed support of the Hungarian people'.

But as the graphs clearly show, the views of the vast majority of society are not reflected in these at all. Thus, at best, these consultations are only good for Fidesz to use them as a reference point to support its own plans, but they in no way reflect the opinions of all Hungarians. All that matters is for the government to be able to say – both at home and abroad – that the Hungarian people support its policies in everything.

However, when it comes to the validity of a vote, the percentage of respondents expressing their opinion does matter. One of the basic conditions required for expressing the will of the people is usually that at least half of the electorate (plus one vote) should give their opinion. In the case of parliamentary elections, a 2011 amendment to the law removed this validity criterion, but 60-70 percent of the voting age population has continued to vote in these elections.

The 50 percent validity threshold remained in place for referendums though. In contrast to the national consultations, a referendum is valid and conclusive if more than half of the eligible voters cast a valid vote and more than half of those who did so gave the same answer to the question asked. This was not achieved in the so-called referendum ‘on child protection’, held alongside the 2022 parliamentary elections. There weren't enough valid votes, the turnout was only 47.6 per cent, but that still didn't stop the government from deeming it politically valid.

Although the exact question of the public opinion poll on Ukraine's accession to the EU is not yet known, the Prime Minister has already presented the arguments against it. Among these, he said that Ukrainian citizens and Ukrainian guest workers would be able to move freely, and the influx of Ukrainian agricultural products would destroy the European market. He did not mention any arguments in favour of it. This gives us some idea as to how the question will be formulated so that the outcome will ultimately be favourable to the government. There is no doubt that Fidesz will frame the whole thing as the Hungarian people having given their approval for the government to continue its anti-Ukraine policy.

But the Prime Minister's objective is not to ask the Hungarian people's opinion on Ukraine anyway. As we previously analysed, he is only trying to steal the initiative from Péter Magyar. The opinion poll is a way for Fidesz to activate its voter base, which may be needed because the Tisza Party has announced a "huge spring event" for 15 March. The country's leading opposition party is launching a similar "opinion poll" on "real issues", including Hungary's membership in the EU. This likely means that in the weeks and months to come, Hungarian domestic politics will be all about who can mobilise better and how many signatures they can collect.