Tisza ahead of Fidesz by 15 percentage points among decided voters, poll shows

According to the latest poll from Medián, which will be published in full in Thursday's print edition of HVG, the Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar and launched less than a year and a half ago, is ahead of Fidesz by 10 percentage points among the entire voting-age population and by 15 percentage points among decided voters who are certain to vote, Hvg.hu has reported. Among the decideds who are certain to vote, support for Magyar's party already exceeds 50 percent. The survey was conducted by Public Opinion and Market Research Institute Medián between June 3 and 7 on a representative national sample of 1,000 people.

Hvg.hu has likened Tisza's current support with Fidesz's results in 2022, when Fidesz won 52 percent of the votes cast in Hungary, while the coalition of the opposition parties received only 36 percent.

The poll reveals that the Tisza Party's strongest base is among those under 40, of whom 58 percent would vote for them if an election were held this Sunday, but the party also leads among those aged 40 to 49.

In the over-50's age group, Fidesz is in the lead, though there has been some decline in the numbers. The survey also shows that there is a strong correlation between educational attainment and party preference, according to the summary. Nearly half of those with a high school diploma or a university degree support the Tisza Party, with only a fifth supporting Fidesz, while almost half of those with an eighth-grade education or less support Fidesz, with only 17 percent backing Tisza. Péter Magyar's party is stronger in bigger cities, while Fidesz has a one-point lead in small towns, which is within the margin of error.

The participants were also asked whether they would prefer a change of government after the next election, with 62 percent saying they would prefer a change and only 32 percent wanting the current administration to remain in power. The number of those in favor of a change of government has been on the rise over the past year: while in June 2024, 49 percent would have preferred a change of government (and 42 percent would have preferred the current government to remain in power), by November 2024, 59 percent were in favor of a change, with 33 percent were in favor of keeping the current government. The majority of those in favor of a change of government are committed Tisza voters, while one-fifth of those in this group did not say which party they would vote for.

Monthly polls have consistently shown the strengthening Tisza Party. The latest numbers from IDEA, released at the end of May, showed them with a 7 percentage point advantage over Fidesz, and the current Medián results significantly exceed that.

Péter Magyar, the leader of the Tisza party has already reacted to the latest poll results. In a social media post he wrote: “Thank you! TISZA knows its task and is aware of its historical responsibility. We will keep going and together we will achieve our goal in 298 days at the latest. Modesty, humility, humanity and a great deal of work. That is what is needed now.”