Pollster estimates strong two-thirds majority for Tisza

The Tisza Party could secure a two-thirds majority on April 12, one that would be unprecedented since 2014 – HVG has reported based on a poll conducted by Medián. According to their numbers, The Tisza Party could have 138–143 representatives in Parliament, which would give them a clear two-thirds majority. Fidesz can expect 49–55 seats.

According to their mandate estimates, Tisza would receive 141 seats, Fidesz 52, Mi Hazánk would have 5, and the Roma minority would receive 1 seat.

Medián surveyed 5,000 people between the last week of February through March; with the survey concluding last week. Endre Hann, the head of the pollster emphasized that these are estimates, noting that there are things happening every day that could influence the vote.

Shortly before the elections, 48 percent of the voting-age population planned to vote for the Tisza Party, 30 percent for Fidesz, 4 percent for Mi Hazánk, 2 percent for DK, 1 percent for the MKKP, while 15 percent did not know or did not want to answer, or were certain they would not vote.

Based on an analysis of data from the five previous representative surveys, Medián also examined the level of support for the various political parties among different social groups and how party preferences have changed since the 2022 election. Based on these findings:

• Fidesz has lost a quarter of its 2022 voter base;
• the Tisza Party remains strongest among young people and is actually gaining strength month by month;
• the absolute majority of college graduates and high school graduates will vote for Tisza, with only one-quarter to one-fifth of this group supporting Fidesz;
• the bigger the settlement, the higher the percentage of residents supporting the Tisza Party, and the smaller the settlement, the more popular Fidesz is.

More than two-thirds of Tisza Party voters believe that Fidesz could only win the April 12 parliamentary election if it resorted to fraud, while more than a third of the ruling parties' supporters believe that Péter Magyar's party could only come to power using dishonest means — according to a recent survey by the 21 Research Center, commissioned by Telex and conducted between March 23 and 28 with 1,500 respondents. Almost half of the non-ruling party voters believe that Fidesz could only win the election through fraud.